The Labour reshuffle and the battle for hearts

Yesterday's reshuffle was the 13^th such reassertion of control to take place under Tony Blair's leadership, so will this turn out to be a lucky number for Labour? Of course the Conservatives say no, but it's hard to judge as yet - the extent of the changes is still being taken in. What is certain is that if Labour wants that elusive fourth term in power then it will have to take it rather than be given it - with the local election results placing The Conservatives at 40% to Labour's meagre 26%.

So is the result of the next general election already a forgone conclusion? The answer is not easy. Those results are unlikely to be reflected directly in a general election, in which voters behave rather differently, but the results are still crucial for a couple of reasons. Firstly, Labour has rarely performed so poorly in a local election, and secondly the threat from the Lib Dems is now greater than ever, because the results place them above Labour at 27%. In terms of vote share the Lib Dems are now beginning to consistently achieve high returns at both local and national level, with their average general election performance since 1974 being a respectable 19.3%.

Examining the reasons for their failure to win those all-important seats is a difficult task, but generally winning seats is down to tightly focused campaigns based on issues local to each ward, and so it's about a candidate's ability to engage with the electorate which perhaps is not being cultivated effectively enough by the party as a whole. Alternatively, the reason for the wide rather than focused distribution of support could result from the Liberal Democrats' position as a third party to the unpopular main two - that is to say, their high level of votes attained could be more reactionary than responsive. It could be difficult to increase voting patterns that might be boosted by dissatisfaction with other parties.

However, the glimmer of hope for the Conservatives and Lib Dems lives on for the moment in that this dissatisfaction does not look like ending for some time, with the debacle regarding the departure time of Tony Blair and the arrival of Gordon Brown as party leader set to continue indefinitely. Gordon Brown's reshuffle day Today interview only served to add to the confusion. Although the original New Labour goals and, dare I say it, glamour, may have waned with the departure of key players Peter Mandelson and Alastair Campbell some time ago, this government's staying power is still a serious proposition with its new and serious adherence to a highly successful centre-left approach it has not used before, and three years is a long time...

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