The Labour reshuffle and the battle for hearts

Yesterday's reshuffle was the 13^th such reassertion of control to take place under Tony Blair's leadership, so will this turn out to be a lucky number for Labour? Of course the Conservatives say no, but it's hard to judge as yet - the extent of the changes is still being taken in. What is certain is that if Labour wants that elusive fourth term in power then it will have to take it rather than be given it - with the local election results placing The Conservatives at 40% to Labour's meagre 26%.

So is the result of the next general election already a forgone conclusion? The answer is not easy. Those results are unlikely to be reflected directly in a general election, in which voters behave rather differently, but the results are still crucial for a couple of reasons. Firstly, Labour has rarely performed so poorly in a local election, and secondly the threat from the Lib Dems is now greater than ever, because the results place them above Labour at 27%. In terms of vote share the Lib Dems are now beginning to consistently achieve high returns at both local and national level, with their average general election performance since 1974 being a respectable 19.3%.

Examining the reasons for their failure to win those all-important seats is a difficult task, but generally winning seats is down to tightly focused campaigns based on issues local to each ward, and so it's about a candidate's ability to engage with the electorate which perhaps is not being cultivated effectively enough by the party as a whole. Alternatively, the reason for the wide rather than focused distribution of support could result from the Liberal Democrats' position as a third party to the unpopular main two - that is to say, their high level of votes attained could be more reactionary than responsive. It could be difficult to increase voting patterns that might be boosted by dissatisfaction with other parties.

However, the glimmer of hope for the Conservatives and Lib Dems lives on for the moment in that this dissatisfaction does not look like ending for some time, with the debacle regarding the departure time of Tony Blair and the arrival of Gordon Brown as party leader set to continue indefinitely. Gordon Brown's reshuffle day Today interview only served to add to the confusion. Although the original New Labour goals and, dare I say it, glamour, may have waned with the departure of key players Peter Mandelson and Alastair Campbell some time ago, this government's staying power is still a serious proposition with its new and serious adherence to a highly successful centre-left approach it has not used before, and three years is a long time...

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Love of Labour lost? The local elections

Local election campaigns are once again lurching into action in preparation for May 4th, and NHS woes would seem to indicate labour has even more to fear than usual.

I should be whipped for it, but I didn't know until yesterday after some stats research that local councils in the UK are dominated by the Conservatives. According to the Beeb website, out of 2392 councillors and 37 councils in the UK, the Cons hold 65% and 50% respectively. The Lib Dem figures are 21% and 8%.

A few of these stats are interesting. The Lib Dem 21% figure is rather close to the circa 20% support the party finds itself with in the general elections, but the Cons enjoy almost exactly double the 32% support they fought for in the 2005 general election.

Clearly Labour are going to have to watch things now that they've been forced to acknowledge a failure every day since the resignation/sacking of Sir Nigel Crisp from the positions of Permanent Secretary and Chief Executive of the DOH on March 31st.

Patricia Hewitt appeared yesterday on the Today programme’s 0810 interview to defend the huge staff cuts occurring across the country. The Health Secretary sounded eloquent as ever, but in this case her comments were rendered redundant by the figures which showed the hospitals in worst financial condition were suffering cuts of between 200 and 1000 staff each. Regardless of the repeated mentions in the Chancellor’s budget over the last few years of the billions of pounds being poured into the system. So where's the leak?

This came in the same week when the blame about the conditions of loans and donations to political parties was neatly deflected onto the Tories, nevertheless revealing the increasing pressure on the party in power – a pressure that the Conservatives will have to maintain to remain with a chance in what promises to be a closely fought election.

The former red sea of supporters looks increasingly sparse and unlikely to be able to keep a timid kitten from the banks of victory, let alone the crowd of eager Cameronites poised in their company yacht.