The Labour reshuffle and the battle for hearts

Yesterday's reshuffle was the 13^th such reassertion of control to take place under Tony Blair's leadership, so will this turn out to be a lucky number for Labour? Of course the Conservatives say no, but it's hard to judge as yet - the extent of the changes is still being taken in. What is certain is that if Labour wants that elusive fourth term in power then it will have to take it rather than be given it - with the local election results placing The Conservatives at 40% to Labour's meagre 26%.

So is the result of the next general election already a forgone conclusion? The answer is not easy. Those results are unlikely to be reflected directly in a general election, in which voters behave rather differently, but the results are still crucial for a couple of reasons. Firstly, Labour has rarely performed so poorly in a local election, and secondly the threat from the Lib Dems is now greater than ever, because the results place them above Labour at 27%. In terms of vote share the Lib Dems are now beginning to consistently achieve high returns at both local and national level, with their average general election performance since 1974 being a respectable 19.3%.

Examining the reasons for their failure to win those all-important seats is a difficult task, but generally winning seats is down to tightly focused campaigns based on issues local to each ward, and so it's about a candidate's ability to engage with the electorate which perhaps is not being cultivated effectively enough by the party as a whole. Alternatively, the reason for the wide rather than focused distribution of support could result from the Liberal Democrats' position as a third party to the unpopular main two - that is to say, their high level of votes attained could be more reactionary than responsive. It could be difficult to increase voting patterns that might be boosted by dissatisfaction with other parties.

However, the glimmer of hope for the Conservatives and Lib Dems lives on for the moment in that this dissatisfaction does not look like ending for some time, with the debacle regarding the departure time of Tony Blair and the arrival of Gordon Brown as party leader set to continue indefinitely. Gordon Brown's reshuffle day Today interview only served to add to the confusion. Although the original New Labour goals and, dare I say it, glamour, may have waned with the departure of key players Peter Mandelson and Alastair Campbell some time ago, this government's staying power is still a serious proposition with its new and serious adherence to a highly successful centre-left approach it has not used before, and three years is a long time...

●Visit the Labour Party's homepage.

Reshuffle no. 254,643,459,959,758,...

After a strong Conservative performance in yesterday's local elections, the results of which are now all in except for one seat, Tony Blair swung into action with a reshuffle carried out throughout the day and announced on official websites as the changes were called out.

Andrew Marr's Sunday AM programme noted last week a rumour that the reshuffle was planned to take place about now, and it has now gone through, with the Prime Minister making many key changes to the cabinet. The BBC website today prepared a rundown of the reshuffle changes, which is not quite viewable ‘at a glance.’ Here is an alternative version:

Position (With links to departmental sites)	Out! (With links to why they may have gone)	In! (With links to show troubles they've faced)
ODPM -> DCLG	John Prescott	Ruth Kelly
Deputy Prime Minister	‘’	John Prescott Holds
Foreign Secretary	Jack Straw	Margaret Beckett
Home Secretary	Charles Clarke	John Reid
Health Secretary	‘’	Patricia Hewitt Holds
Defence Secretary	John Reid	Des Browne
Education Secretary	Ruth Kelly	Alan Johnson
Trade Secretary	Alan Johnson	Alistair Darling
Transport Secretary	Alistair Darling	Douglas Alexander
Environment Secretary	Margaret Beckett	David Miliband
Chief Secretary to the Treasury	Des Browne	Stephen Timms
Leader of the Commons	Jeff Hoon	Jack Straw
Labour Party Chairman	Ian McCartney	Hazel Blears
Chief Whip	Hilary Armstrong	Jacqui Smith
Europe Minister	Douglas Alexander	Geoff Hoon
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster (Inc. Minister for the Cabinet Office)	Vacant (“Minister Without Portfolio” Position)	Hilary Armstrong
Foreign Office / DTI Minister of State	N/A: New Position	Ian McCartney

The government has arguably overcome problems with ministers with perhaps greater ease under Tony Blair's leadership than any previous party in office. Nick Robinson has quoted David Cameron expressing his ‘awe’ at the Labour leader's ability to ‘walk away’ unscathed from problems that would have left a lesser politician with a major defeat. It looks like the response to the Tories' victory may be just enough to win another minor battle in the greater war.

●Read the No 10 website's summary of the reshuffle. (Warning: Includes gratuitous gurning.)

●See the BBC's collection of Election 2006 news.

The general election

Going back to the stats, but this time looking at general elections, although the Conservatives have suffered defeats of historical magnitude at the last three, the electoral ‘first past the post’ system is specifically geared towards creating differences in seats.

Whether this a good thing is actually quite hard to tell - more on this later. Let's take the example of last years election results, again using the BBC site figures. In 2005 Labour won 35.3% of the UK vote to the Conservatives’ 32.3%.

So even though the separation of the parties in votes was only 3%, the Labour Party actually won 356 seats out of 646, or 55%. Clearly then, the road to electoral success is defined by a party's ability to gain support where it is needed most - rather than having a large numerical support base confined to a lesser geographical area.

The diagram to the left shows the share of the electorate who actually backed the winning parties over 1951-2005.



The BBC news site also features a prediction system designed for the 2005 election based on the percentage ‘swing’ of votes between the two leading parties. A swing of 6.5% to the Conservatives was predicted by the site in the run up to the 2005 elections to remove labour’s majority, and in the 2005 elections part of that was achieved with an overall 3% swing to the blues. Based on the 2005 vote separation between the leading parties, with just another 3+% by 2009 we could in theory have a new government!

However, the situation is not so simple. A swing to the Conservatives of between 6.5 and 10%, or 3.5% and 7% by the 2009 election, would result in a hung parliament in which the winning party is deemed not to have a sufficient parliamentary majority to govern effectively - leading to a coalition if the parties concerned agree to one, a form of government this country has not experienced since the Second World War, although there was a close call in 1974. As you can see from the chart on the left, the UK Parliament has kept coalition-free while its European counterparts frequently face such alliances.

So over the next few years the age-old debate about the implementation of Proportional Representation (PR) is likely to rage on. Now that the proportions of the British public voting are likely to be so close, weak coalition governments (which are of course more likely to be plagued by in-fighting than individual ones) will surely arise with or without PR. On the other hand we have the compelling statistic that in 2005 only 22% of the electorate voted for the winning party, a proportion which has been shown to be falling since the 50's (see BBC chart above).

Figures such as those produced by ukelect.co.uk confirm my prediction of an unusually closely fought future election based on today’s political situation, placing support for the two lead parties for 2005-2009 squarely at a figure of 36%, when a hung parliament is likely to be achieved when support for the two lead parties is in the 34-37% range.

The parties themselves are no strangers to most of these issues. If you read a bit further down in the DCA UK electoral system summary above, you'll see that since their first term in power Labour have established two independent commissions tasked with analysing the electoral system: The Independent Commission on the Voting System and the Independent Commission on Proportional Representation. The latter, carried out between 2002 and 2004 was inconclusive, stating that if the switch were made, there culd be ‘some increase in the range of small parties represented in the Commons, as well as, a greater chance of coalition or minority governement.’

It would be interesting to see the logic upon which report decided the chance of a coalition would be greater. Labour has been hinted to have one rather strong supporter of PR, and placed in a rather strong position too. Paddy Ashdown has asserted he is ‘absolutely convinced’ that none other than the Rt Hon Tony Blair was at least at one time eager for a coalition with the Lib Dems even without the potential stalemate now faced.

●Download the DCA summary of UK voting systems as a PDF.
●Visit the website of the Electoral Reform Society, the oldest pro-PR body.

Love of Labour lost? The local elections

Local election campaigns are once again lurching into action in preparation for May 4th, and NHS woes would seem to indicate labour has even more to fear than usual.

I should be whipped for it, but I didn't know until yesterday after some stats research that local councils in the UK are dominated by the Conservatives. According to the Beeb website, out of 2392 councillors and 37 councils in the UK, the Cons hold 65% and 50% respectively. The Lib Dem figures are 21% and 8%.

A few of these stats are interesting. The Lib Dem 21% figure is rather close to the circa 20% support the party finds itself with in the general elections, but the Cons enjoy almost exactly double the 32% support they fought for in the 2005 general election.

Clearly Labour are going to have to watch things now that they've been forced to acknowledge a failure every day since the resignation/sacking of Sir Nigel Crisp from the positions of Permanent Secretary and Chief Executive of the DOH on March 31st.

Patricia Hewitt appeared yesterday on the Today programme’s 0810 interview to defend the huge staff cuts occurring across the country. The Health Secretary sounded eloquent as ever, but in this case her comments were rendered redundant by the figures which showed the hospitals in worst financial condition were suffering cuts of between 200 and 1000 staff each. Regardless of the repeated mentions in the Chancellor’s budget over the last few years of the billions of pounds being poured into the system. So where's the leak?

This came in the same week when the blame about the conditions of loans and donations to political parties was neatly deflected onto the Tories, nevertheless revealing the increasing pressure on the party in power – a pressure that the Conservatives will have to maintain to remain with a chance in what promises to be a closely fought election.

The former red sea of supporters looks increasingly sparse and unlikely to be able to keep a timid kitten from the banks of victory, let alone the crowd of eager Cameronites poised in their company yacht.